The Reasoned Review

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Major Oil Company CEO says Peak Oil in 2010

with one comment

(c/o The Oil Drum)

Mr. Gabrielli, CEO of oil giant Petrobras, gave a presentation last December, wherein he predicted the world’s oil capacity, including biofuels, will peak in 2010. You can download the presentation here. Some highlights from the Oil Drum’s analysis:

On another slide, Gabrielli plots cumulative decline in existing fields against time. Consequently, the world needs one Saudi Arabia every two years just to keep production constant. Fortunately, new oil capacity from sanctioned projects can offset some of cumulative decline of 30 mbd in 2015. However, the chart above still shows a gap of over 5 mbd which needs to be filled by projects yet to be sanctioned or development of undiscovered oil. If this gap cannot be filled then demand cannot be met and prices will increase to reduce demand down to supply.

Gabrielli’s concerns about peak oil capacity in 2010 and future declining world oil capacity should be taken seriously. He shows that by 2012/13 the world oil capacity will only just meet world demand, based on Wood MacKenzie’s data, highlighting the risk of a potential oil supply crunch. If Wikipedia Oil Megaproject data are used then peak oil capacity is also indicated in 2010 as well as an an oil supply crunch in 2012/13. The IEA’s Fatih Birol has also stated that an oil supply crunch is likely to occur by 2014. In other words, the world does not have enough future Saudi Arabia equivalent capacity additions to stop world oil production from declining, causing an inevitable supply crunch within the next few years.

Well, I’m frightened.

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Written by pavanvan

February 6, 2010 at 3:23 pm

One Response

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  1. i posted a link to this article on facebook.
    i hope you dont mind

    sprouts

    February 6, 2010 at 11:57 pm


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